Vodafone idea may log huge losses in Q1, Bharti Airtel’s profit may jump multifold

Telecom sector is likely to see slower mobile revenue growth amid subscriber decline for and and fewer 4G net additions due to lower smartphone sales, a couple of brokerages said in their earnings preview. Brokerages said there would be negligible benefit from the recent tariff hike.
is pegging Vodafone Idea’s June quarter losses at Rs 6,647 crore. This would be higher than the 6,563 crore loss it reported for the March quarter but less than Rs 7,319.10 crore in the same quarter last year. YES Securities sees Vodafone Idea losses at Rs 6,307.80 crore; at Rs 6,659 crore.

ICICI Securities sees Bharti Airtel’s profit after tax at Rs 1,926.80 crore, up 644.80 per cent YoY but down 4 per cent sequentially. YES Securities anticipated Bharti’s profit at Rs 3,483.10 crore. Edelweiss pegged its bottomline at Rs 2,422 crore.

ICICI Securities sees Vodafone Idea’s revenues rising 0.6 per cent sequentially (12.6 per cent YoY) to Rs 10,303 crore, negatively impacted by subscriber decline. ICICI Securities expects its Ebitda to drop 3.4 per cent QoQ (up 21 per cent YoY) due to higher power cost and one-off gains of Rs 150 crore in the base quarter.

For Bharti Airtel, the brokerage sees mobile revenue growth at 1.6 per cent QoQ (up 21.6 per cent YoY) .

India Ebitda is seen up 1.6 per cent QoQ (25.2 per cent YoY) to Rs 11,600 crore, and incremental Ebitda margin will be restricted from higher diesel prices.

“Bharti’s Africa dollar revenue and Ebitda will rise 0.8 per cent QoQ to $1.231 billion and 0.5 per cent QoQ to $579 million, respectively. Consolidated revenue for Bharti Airtel may rise 2.6 per cent QoQ to Rs 32,300 crore and Ebitda will dip 1 per cent QoQ to Rs 15,900 crore,” ICICI Securities said.

ICICI Securities sees Bharti’s ARPU to grow 3.1 per cent to Rs 184 and Vodafone’s by 2 per cent to Rs 126. RJio, the unlisted telecom arm of

, will have the highest growth in ARPU, up 4 per cent QoQ to Rs174, it said.

YES Securities expects Vodafone’s average revenue per user (ARPU) to grow 9 per cent QoQ due to migration from 2G to 4G users and tariff hike in the prepaid segment. For Bharti, growth will be led by strong performance by India Security business and facilities management, YES Securities said.

Edelweiss is building in a 4.6 per cent QoQ growth in revenue with a 3.2 per cent QoQ growth for the India business and 7.0 per cent QoQ growth (in rupee terms) for the Africa business.

“We expect the India mobile services business to grow 3.6 per cent QoQ led by 2.5 per cent ARPU growth and 4 million subscriber addition. For Africa business, we expect a 4.3 per cent QoQ growth in dollar terms and a 104bps expansion in Ebitda margins. On a consolidated basis, we anticipate the Ebitda margin to decline 145 bps QoQ due to inflationary cost pressures,” it said.

For Vodafone Idea, this brokerage estimated revenue growth of 1 per cent QoQ, on 2.2 per cent ARPU increase and 2.5 million subscriber decline.

Ebitda margins are likely to contract 110 bps QoQ to 44.3 per cent on one off network and IT costs in Q4FY22. Adjusted for the one off, Ebitda margin to expand 147bp QoQ, Edelweiss said.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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